Announcing the bi-monthly monetary policy, Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das said the RBI's internal survey says manufacturing, services and infrastructure sector firms are optimistic of the business outlook.
Dr Nagesh Kumar, one of the three new MPC members, wanted the MPC to reduce the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.25%.
Any reduction in the customs duty on smartphone parts in the forthcoming budget will harm India's developing component ecosystem, discourage investment, increase imports, and make local firms uncompetitive, potentially resulting in job losses, think tank GTRI said on Tuesday. India's smartphone industry is a 'Make in India' success story, with 2023-24 production reaching $49.2 billion and exports at $15.6 billion, making smartphones the fourth-largest export after diesel, aviation fuel, and polished diamonds.
The central government is on track to meet its fiscal deficit target of 6.4 per cent of the GDP for 2022-23 on the back of strong growth in revenue collections, the World Bank said in its India Development Update on Tuesday. High nominal GDP growth in the first quarter supported strong growth in revenue collection, especially Goods and Services Tax (GST), despite tax cuts on fuel. Notwithstanding an increase in spending due to expanded fertilizer subsidies and food subsidies for vulnerable households in response to the commodity price shock, the government is on track to meet its FY22/23 fiscal deficit target of 6.4 per cent of GDP and the general government deficit is projected to decline to 9.6 per cent from 10.3 per cent in FY21/22 and 13.3 per cent in FY20/21.
Economists at the country's largest lender SBI on Wednesday said they see Q2 real GDP growth slowing down further to 6.5 per cent in the September quarter of this fiscal year. Amid concerns over the country's economic growth rate and if it is slowing down, the analysts said they expect FY25 growth to come "closer to" 7 per cent. It can be noted that the April-June period saw the real GDP expanding by 6.7 per cent, the lowest in 15 quarters.
In a significant policy shift aimed at boosting agri-productivity and rural prosperity, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Saturday announced six new agricultural schemes while increasing the subsidised Kisan Credit Card loan limit to Rs 5 lakh from the existing Rs 3 lakh, benefiting 7.7 crore farmers, fishermen, and dairy farmers.
The government has utilised 'escape clause' under the FRBM Act which provides it leeway for relaxation of fiscal deficit roadmap during time of stress.
'2025 is the year to build a portfolio for the future. Focus this year should be on valuations and visible growth.'
'Maharashtra is virtually in a debt trap.'
The RBI said that strong signs of fiscal consolidation are necessary to create a space for lowering policy rate without the risk of resurgent inflation.
he government in its budget for 2009-10 proposed to raise Rs 4.5 lakh crore (Rs 4.5 trillion) from the market, up from Rs 3.1 lakh crore (Rs 3.1 trillion) in the previous year and pegged the fiscal deficit at 6.8 per cent of the GDP as against 6.2 per cent in 2008-09.
Fitch Ratings on Tuesday said the FY25 Budget demonstrated the government's ongoing commitment to reducing fiscal deficit and ensured policy continuity during the NDA government's new term. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Tuesday presented the first Budget of the Modi 3.0 government in which she revised the deficit target for current fiscal lower to 4.9 per cent of the GDP, from 5.1 per cent projected in the interim Budget.
Several questions arise on the appropriateness of the measure in the already strained fiscal scenario, says M Govinda Rao.
S&P Global Ratings on Monday raised India's growth forecast for the current financial year to 6.4 per cent, from 6 per cent, saying that robust domestic momentum has offset headwinds from high food inflation and weak exports. The US-based rating agency, however, has cut growth estimates for the next fiscal (2024-25) to 6.4 per cent, as it expects growth to slow in the second half (October-March) of the current fiscal, on higher base impact and subdued global growth.
'We are going to need more technical people in government.' 'You can't expect a generalist to understand the complicated world of financial engineering.' 'I regret to say that most of our politicians have no competence to deal with these things. Nor is there a willingness to learn.'
Automobile dispatches from companies to dealers rose 12 per cent last year compared to 2023 on the back of positive consumer sentiments which aided robust demand for two-wheelers, industry body SIAM said on Tuesday. Total wholesales across categories rose to 2,54,98,763 units in 2024 against 228,39,130 units in 2023, a growth of 11.6 per cent.
Moody's Ratings on Tuesday projected general government debt to stabilise above 80 per cent of GDP over the next three years, down from 89.3 per cent in 2020-21. "General government interest payments to fall to around 24 per cent of general government revenue over the next two years from over 28 per cent in fiscal 2020-21, although this remains much higher than the median 8.7 per cent recorded by Baa-rated peers," Moody's Ratings associate managing director Gene Fang said in a post-Budget reaction.
'Our attempt to honour the taxpayer has been since 2014 and more actively since 2019-2020 onwards.'
Recognising job creation for the youth as the foremost challenge for the economy, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Tuesday announced a comprehensive Prime Minister's package to facilitate the employment and skilling of 41 million youth with a central outlay of Rs 2 trillion over the next five-year period. The package will consist of five schemes and initiatives - three focused on jobs and two on skilling.
'I am optimistic about the Budget because of the fiscal discipline the government has committed to.'
S&P Global Ratings on Friday said it will watch the fiscal numbers for the next 1-2 years, besides pro-growth policies of the new government, before deciding on India's sovereign rating upgrade. S&P, which earlier this week upgraded India's outlook to positive while retaining the sovereign rating at BBB-, expects the new government to continue with pro-growth policies, infrastructure investment and commitment to fiscal consolidation.
Let's wait for the monetary policy on February 8 -- to see how it complements the fiscal commitments, points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
'For the past number of weeks, you and I have found ourselves at odds about the best path forward for Canada'
'Nearly 10 million people will benefit from the increase in the rebate limit for those earning up to Rs 12 lakh.' 'We expect all that money will come back into the economy in either savings, consumption, or investments.'
Retail investors have become a force to reckon with in the last 10 years with their ownership of Indian equities rising 800 basis points, or 8 per cent, to 23.4 per cent during this period, suggests a recent note from Morgan Stanley. This number, Morgan Stanley said, is set to rise in the next few years as Indian households are still underinvested in equities. India's demographics, policy framework, investor education and modest positive real rates, it said, will fuel the 'equity cult' in India.
'Whether I am optimistic or pessimistic is not the issue; I am just going by the evidence available.' 'The Indian economy and financial sector are now well-placed and very resilient in dealing with any kind of spillover coming from the external world.'
'Investors can consider staying invested in long duration products as there is a possibility of rate cuts in the near term.' Positive macros - lower inflation, high forex reserves and favourable demand-supply dynamics for government bonds - make a strong case for rate cuts from December, says Devang Shah, head of fixed income, Axis Mutual Fund. In an interview with Abhishek Kumar in Mumbai, Shah says this view may not hold true if commodity prices go up sharply.
Following are comments from economists at leading financial institutions, banks and rating agencies on the interim Budget:
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is likely to hold pre-budget consultations with industry chambers on June 20, sources said. The budget for 2024-25 fiscal is likely to be presented in Parliament in the second half of July. Industry sources said the pre-budget consultation with Sitharaman would be preceded by a meeting with Revenue Secretary Sanjay Malhotra on June 18.
'Investors looking at the next 6-12 months can be certain that the Fed will maintain its easing cycle, and we expect the overall environment to be conducive for fixed income investments for portfolio diversification.'
Three policymakers aware of the central bank's deliberations on the Budget said they are combing through the numbers to test how Jaitley struck a balance, and question some of the assumptions.
India will unveil its much-awaited new Foreign Trade Policy 2023-28 on Friday, with a view to boost exports amid slowing global trade. Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal will announce the foreign trade policy, according to the ministry. The current foreign trade policy (2015-20) is in force till March 31, 2022.
Benchmark interest rate hiked by 50 basis points to 3-year high at 5.90 per cent. Economic growth projection for FY23 cut to 7% from 7.2% estimated in August. GDP expected to grow at 6.3% in September quarter, 4.6% each in December and March quarters.
'This government has always been fiscally conservative. It never resorted to fiscal profligacy.'
Buoyed by over 17 per cent of industrial growth in April,the highest for 2010 so far, Planning Commission on Friday said the government's policies were "working" and that it should continue with gradual withdrawal of stimulus.
'He will be remembered more for what he did as finance minister -- as someone who functioned well when the political fallout was taken care of.'
'We face the risk of remaining a low-income country for a very long time unless something changes in the next few years.' 'Instead of constantly talking about becoming a developed economy, we need to start fixing the problems of the economy one by one.' 'There is so much potential, and we are squandering away the opportunity.'
Households are likely to remain the primary net lenders to the economy in the coming decades.
S&P Global Ratings on Wednesday upgraded India's sovereign rating outlook to positive from stable while retaining the rating at 'BBB-' on robust growth and improved quality of government expenditure. S&P said it could upgrade India's sovereign rating in the next 2 years if the country adopts a cautious fiscal and monetary policy that diminishes the government's elevated debt and interest burden while bolstering economic resilience.
Automobile retail sales in India declined 9 per cent year-on-year in September amid a massive buildup of passenger vehicle inventory due to sluggish demand, dealer's body FADA said on Monday, urging original equipment manufacturers to take corrective steps. The overall registrations declined to 17,23,330 units last month from 18,99,192 units in September 2023, as most of the categories including passenger vehicles and two-wheelers witnessed a year-on-year (Y-O-Y) drop.
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